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The Futureof WorkJobs andSkills in 2030

Foreword/Toby Peyton-Jones3Foreword»This study presents an authoritativeassessment of future challenges andopportunities in the labour market andthe implications for jobs and skills.«Contents3Foreword41/Introduction62/Study methodology83/Trends shaping the future of UK jobsand skills up to 2030124/ Forced Flexibility:the business-as-usual scenario145/Disruptions that could radicallychange the future of work18 6/What if ?Disruptive scenarios of future jobsand skills in the UK182022The Great DivideSkills ActivismInnovation Adaptation247/Key messages268/Action for future skills289/What next?29EndnotesThe Future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 2030What will jobs look like in 2030and what skills will be in greatestdemand? Gazing into the futuremay seem speculative, or evenwhimsical, because experiencetells us that predictions aboutwhat the world will look like yearsfrom now are destined to beinaccurate.But what if, backed withextensive and robust research,an assessment of the labourmarket of the future could serveas a basis for a debate aroundthe challenges and opportunitiesindividuals and businesses arelikely to face?This kind of exercise has neverbeen more relevant as we seekto make sense of the futurein a landscape of rapid andprofound change. For example,the potential disruptive impacton jobs of advances in robotics,artificial intelligence and 3-Dprinting is a focus for fiercedebate. We may also face theparadox where the emergenceof a networked global talentpool seems to promise evermore intense competition foropportunities at all levels of theUK workforce, and at the sametime we are also likely to faceskills “vacuums” where we arenot fast enough at developingskills for newly emergingbusiness fields.Technology is alreadytransforming our homes inways we could not have dreamedof only a few years ago, andthese same technologies arealso re-shaping the workplaceand how we work and interact.This will have major implicationsfor underlying business modelsand the way in which work isorganised.unions and academia, as well asa detailed and comprehensivereview of the literature.It is in this context thatindividuals and employers,as part of their career andbusiness development, will makedecisions about investmentin skills. These decisions arecritical, with skills playing afundamental role in determiningindividual employability andearnings potential, contributingto the productivity of businessand attracting mobile foreigninvestment.Although a study of this kind cannever provide definitive answers,it serves to provoke reflectionand debate as part of the processof preparing for the challengesand opportunities presented bythe labour market of the future.And, at a national level thecentral question of the UK’sability to rebalance its economyand deliver sustainable prosperityfor all is strongly dependent oncreating an “agile, demand led”skills engine that can respondrapidly to this transformationalagenda.Foresight studies are plentiful,but this one adds distinctivevalue through its specific focuson labour market issues, and byexamining the impact of globaltrends through the lens of UKconditions.The UK Commission looksforward to engaging with youon the pertinent areas of actionthat will prepare our businessesand UK workforce for tomorrow’sworld of work.Toby Peyton-JonesDirector of HR SiemensUK and North West EuropeUKCES CommissionerThis study presents anauthoritative assessment of futurechallenges and opportunitiesin the labour market and theimplications for jobs and skills. Itis based on expert input from keygroups including business, tradeThe Future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 2030

41/ Introduction1/ Introduction1/Introductionembrace it?”(UK senior business leader)»Our aim is not to predict a specific future,rather to influence and challenge thinking ina constructive, creative way.«It is not possible to predictthe future. Twenty years ago,there was a widespread beliefamong commentators that thedefining feature of the futureUK labour market would beradically reduced workinghours and increased leisuretime.As we see welcome signs of astrengthening UK economy, it isan opportune time to take adetailed look at the medium tolong-term prospects for the worldof work.This study looks ahead to thelabour market of 2030. It analysesstable trends that are alreadyFast forward to 2014, the year shaping the future of UK jobs andin which mobile is set to over- skills, and identifies the plausibletake desktop to access thedisruptions to those trends. It thenInternet, and work and leisure plots four anticipated scenarioshours have become blurred by of what the UK’s work landscapeour increasingly ‘mobile’ lives. might look like in 2030, andJobs are being done on theimportantly, the skills that will bemove, at any time of day, inrequired under these conditions.almost any location.At the UK Commission forThis example highlights theEmployment and Skills, ourdifficulties involved in foremission is to transformcasting change and the needapproaches to skills investment toto take a modest and cautious drive enterprise, jobs and growth.attitude when communicating The purpose of this report is tothe results of such an exertrigger debate about investment incise.skills and inform the decisionsfacing employers, individuals,Yet the way we think aboutpolicy makers and educationtomorrow influences what we doproviders.today. We do not have definitiveanswers about what is around the At a time when economiccorner but we can try tooptimism is building, we can dosystematically make sense of the more than merely react todirection of travel in the labourdevelopments – we canmarket and assess the keyproactively work towards auncertainties that we know exist.positive outcome. Our aim is notBy analysing developments in the to predict a specific future, ratherUK labour market now, we canto influence and challengestart to position ourselves for thethinking in a constructive, creativework needs and opportunities ofway.the future.The Future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 2030The global labour market in 2030is likely to be highly competitive.New attitudes and behaviours willbe needed by individuals andbusinesses founded on flexibility,resilience, collaboration,entrepreneurism and creativity.Above all, the ability to respond tocontinuous change will be critical.This report is a resource foranyone with an interest in thelonger-term future of the labourmarket. It has been developed for: individuals considering theircareer prospects and skillsinvestment decisions; businesses looking to attractand develop talent as a keyresource for competitiveness; education and training providersaiming to meet future learningmarket needs; and policy makers seeking toaddress market failures, buildon strengths and maximisebenefits for wider society.This report presents the keyfindings of our research but furtherand more in depth information,including information by sectorand detailed projections of UKemployment, labour supply andskills, is also available: www.ukces.org.uk/thefutureofwork“We have to recognise the flowof the tide. The labour market isagile – people can travel moreeasily. Rather than trying to fightagainst the flow, how can weWhat trends shape thefuture of work?If current trends run a steadypath, in 2030 the UK workforcewill be multi-generational, older,and more international, withwomen playing a stronger role.While the highly skilled will pushfor a better work-life balance,many others will experienceincreasing insecurity ofemployment and income. Asbusinesses shrink theirworkforces to a minimum usingflexibly employed external serviceproviders to cover shortfalls, amuch smaller group of employeeswill be able to enjoy long-termcontracts.“The idea of a single education,followed by a single career,finishing with a single pension isover”(UK policy maker)Information technology willpervade work environmentseverywhere. Technologies anddisciplines will converge, givingrise to important innovations.Jobs and organisations willbecome increasingly fluid aspeople move from project toproject.What could the UK’sfuture of work looklike in alternativescenarios?“Artificial intelligence could makeanalytical jobs obsolete”(Education and training provider)Yet this proliferation of technologyand our increased globalinterconnectedness will also makesocieties and business processesmore vulnerable. Within thiscontext, companies will be forcedto make their business modelsmore resilient.“Companies with a global footprint will move jobs, opportunitiesand investment to the right areasfor their organisation”(UK senior business leader)It is likely that deficit reduction willcontinue, providing less fiscalscope for political action. Demandfor raw materials and naturalresources will be even higher asthe global gross domestic product(GDP) grows, threateningresource bottlenecks andshortages.“Resource shortages could be akey driver for business innovation,British universities are strongassets”(UK senior business leader)5for the UK labour market leadingto 2030.‘Business as usual’ versusdisruptionsThe first scenario outlines howa ‘business-as-usual’ (BAU)landscape might develop. Incontrast, the remaining threefeature more disruptivedevelopments. The scenariosdescribe four alternative pathsand outcomes, but are notmutually exclusive. They are alldriven by strong commondevelopments including furtherglobalisation, an ageingworkforce, and digitalisation ofwork and everyday life.While this study is robust,comprehensive and compiledfrom detailed analysis, there are,of course, countless alternativesin reality. The scenarios are notintended to be normative or toconvey a ‘preferred’ future. Ratherthey seek to create coherent,plausible stories from complexsocio-economic andtechnological ingredients.What could the world of workin the UK look like in 2030? –The four scenariosThis study explored four differentdevelopment paths, or scenarios,“People will look for jobs that givethem the diversity of experienceand skills that will enhance theirpersonal mobility andopportunities rather than aconventional ‘career ladder’ set ofskills”(UK policy maker)1. Forced Flexibility (BAU)Greater business flexibility andincremental innovation lead tomodest growth in the economy,but this flexibility often resultsin fewer opportunities andweakened job security for thelow-skilled.3. Skills ActivismTechnological innovationdrives the automation ofwhite-collar work and bringslarge-scale job losses andpolitical pressure, leading to anextensive government-led skillsprogramme.2. The Great DivideDespite robust growth drivenby strong high-tech industries,a two-tiered, divided societyhas emerged, reinforcing thedivergence in the economicpositions of the ‘haves’ and‘have nots.’4. Innovation AdaptationIn a stagnant economy,improved productivity isachieved through rigorousimplementation of ICT solutions.The Future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 2030

62/Study methodology2/StudymethodologyOur picture of future jobs and skills is basedon a robust, evidence-based approach.Key elements include a comprehensiveliterature review, expert interviews, highlevel workshop discussions and a fullanalysis of trends and disruptions. The fourscenarios were developed systematically,and implications for jobs and skills, plusassociated action needs, were then drawnfrom this analysis.2/Study methodologyThe chart summarises theresearch process. Moreinformation is available in thefull report: www.ukces.org.uk/thefutureofworkExploring theevidence baseMappingtrends and disruptionsAnalysing keydrivers Systematic literatureanalysis of more than 300publications related to thefuture of jobs and skills,additional desk research and23 interviews with senior UKand international figures. Identification of 13 mostimportant trends driving anddefining the future of UKjobs and skills. Analysis of central andcommon drivers underlyingthe trends and disruptions,to identify 12 key factorswith decisive influence. Production of a 360 viewby looking at societal,technological, economic,ecological and politicalfactors. Analysis of the majordisruptions that mightchallenge future jobs andskills, marking a more radicaldeparture from the maintrends. A ’zooming in’ fromglobal and overarchingdevelopments to UK-specificand jobs and skills-relatedissues. Development of three tofour projections of alternativefuture developments foreach key factor. Refinement of the keyfactors and their projectionsin a workshop with internalexperts from UKCES.ICT velabourmarket Implicationsand action needs Strategic implicationsderived from each scenario(overall and by sector andstakeholder group). Testing and enrichment ofimplications at an expertconference with 34 UKhigh-level contributorsrepresenting differentstakeholder groups(employers, trade unions,education and trainingproviders, policy makers). Identification of potentialactions to prepare fortomorrow’s world of work.The Future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 20307Four scenariosof futurejobs and skills Enrichment of the fourscenarios and developmentof their narratives.1. Forced Flexibility2. The Great Divide3. Skills Activism4. Innovation AdaptationAnalysis andscenario selection Assessment of the “match”between all projectionswith a software-supportedconsistency analysis,resulting in a list of possiblecombinations of projections(the raw scenarios). Selection of a set of fourscenarios of the future ofjobs and skills in 2030,consisting of a reference orbusiness-as-usual scenarioand three scenarios featuringdisruptive developments.The Future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 2030

83/Trends shaping the future of UK jobs and skills up to 20303/Trends shaping the future of UK jobs and skills up to 20309sesdantheEncoomResyGrowing scarcity ofnatural resourcesand degradation ofecosystemsNew businessecosystemsndtheAs a rule trends follow aclear and robust course. A360 view; looking at societal,technological, economic,ecological and politicalfactors identified the 13 mostinfluential and plausible trendsimpacting the jobs and skillslandscape in the UK to Busin3/Trends shapingthe future of UK jobsand skills up to 2030Shift to AsiaDecreasing scopefor political actiondue to constrainedpublic financesDigitalisationof produtioncTeyalogohnnICT development andthe age of big dataGrowing desirefor betterwork-life balanceChanging emographicchangedualSocietyand the IndiviThe Future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 2030Law andPoliticstionnovanIdConverging technologiesand cross-disciplinaryskillsThese were selected froman initial longer list whichincluded trends deemed tohave less potential for impacton the labour market of 2030,including changing householdand family structures,increasing borderless risks,such as global crime, andthe growing importance ofsocial enterprise.Demographic changeThe UK’s population andlabour force are experiencinga marked aging process asthe “baby boom” generationreaches state pension age andolder people participate in thelabour market for longer. Thepopulation aged 65 and over isprojected to increase by 42 percent in the period to 2030, whilstthe population aged 16-64 isexpected to grow by only threeper cent2. Over the next decadethe number of economicallyactive people aged 65 and overis projected to increase by onethird3. Workplaces will becomemore multi-generational, with fourgenerations working together.From a spatial perspective,London’s relatively youngpopulation is growing much fasterthan other parts of the UK and isexpected to become the UK’s firstmegacity (population of 10m ) inaround 20254.Growing diversityThe role of women in the UKlabour market will continue togrow in scale and importance.Projections suggest that overthe next decade women willtake two thirds of net growthin higher-skilled jobs5. Risingglobal mobility of workers andnew technologies are bringingtogether different and sometimesconflicting cultures, religions,races and languages. At thesame time, the UK’s national andethnic make-up is changing anda regional distinction is clearlyvisible. Today in London, 26 percent of those in employment arenon-UK nationals, compared tothe average across the UK ofnine per cent6. It is projected thatinternational migration will makea 10 per cent net contribution topopulation growth in London overthe next decade7.Income uncertaintyHouseholds in the UK facegrowing income uncertainty. Theeconomic crisis led to a markeddecline in real wages but there isevidence that the pay of low andmiddle earners was stagnatingprior to this during years ofeconomic growth. Between2003 and 2008 wages for thebottom half of earners were flatwhilst at the same time the UKeconomy grew by 11 per cent8.According to some forecasts,real wages are not expected toreturn to their peak level (2009)until the next decade9. The pathto 2030 is likely to see a furtherreal-terms reduction of householdincomes whilst inequality betweenhouseholds and regions in theUK becomes more marked. Ifrecent UK trends continue, theproportion of national incomeaccounted for by the highest 0.1per cent of earners will increasefrom 5 per cent to 14 per cent by203010.The Future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 2030

103/Trends shaping the future of UK jobs and skills up to 2030Growing desire for a betterwork-life balanceFaced with growing complexityand performance pressuresin the work environment,individuals are increasinglyseeking a more suitable balanceand better boundaries betweenthe requirements of work andprivate life. A majority (57 percent) of employees say that theavailability of flexible working intheir workplace is important tothem; this proportion is growingover time and is significantlyhigher for particular groupsincluding parents, workers withcaring responsibilities and thehighly qualified11. Generation Y(people born between 1980 and2000 and have grown up almostentirely in the digital age) willfurther drive this trend, with 92per cent identifying flexibility asa top priority when selecting aworkplace12.and organisations are becomingincreasingly flexible in responseto the shift towards a 24 hoursociety. 50 per cent of businessessay that flexible working(including flexible hours andoffsite working) is now standardpractice14.Converging technologiesand cross-disciplinary skillsThe boundaries betweendisciplines, such as naturalsciences and informatics, arebecoming increasingly blurred.As disciplines converge, so dothe technologies. For instance,an industrial robot is an exampleof a mechatronics system inwhich principles of mechanics,electronics and computing arecombined. The convergence oftechnologies can disrupt existingbusiness models, but also createscompletely new markets andnovel application fields. This trendis particularly important to theChanging work environments UK with its strong dependenceBusinesses are increasinglyon sectors like the life sciences.able to create and disbandBioinformatics is an examplecorporate divisions rapidly,of a rapidly growing interas they shift tasks betweendisciplinary scientific field thatslimmed-down pools of long-term derives knowledge from computercore employees, internationalanalysis of biological data, usingcolleagues and outsourcedtechniques and concepts drawnexternal service providers. Infrom informatics, statistics,2013, 67 per cent of employeesmathematics, chemistry,worldwide were working in morebiochemistry, physics, andactively collaborative ways,linguistics. The global marketwhile 57 per cent reported anfor its products and servicesincrease in their number of cois forecast to see double-digitworkers who work from differentannual rates of growth15.13geographical locations . JobsThe Future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 20303/Trends shaping the future of UK jobs and skills up to 2030Digitalisation of productionAs digitalisation becomespervasive in production,autonomous, dece

drivers Analysis of central and common drivers underlying the trends and disruptions, to identify 12 key factors with decisive infl uence. Development of thr ee to four projections of alternative jobs and skills jobs and skills in 2030, The Future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 2030 The Future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 2030 2 3 4. 6. . . . National Aeronautics and Space .